Stop Connecting the Yankees to Marcus Semien
Marcus Semien would not be a good signing for the Yankees to play shortstop. Not even on a short-term contract.
It wouldn’t be right for me to just bash on Marcus Semien completely because he definitely has been a very good player. He hit 45 HR with a 131 wRC+ for the Blue Jays this season after signing a one-year, $18M deal in January. Don’t forget: The A’s didn’t even offer him a qualifying offer after 2020’s fake season.
Semien went from an average big leaguer at best over his first six MLB seasons to one of the best value players in the sport over the last three seasons. He leads the majors in Baseball-Ref WAR (15.8) since the start of the 2019 season and that includes 2020.
Look at that. He had 75 HR, 12.8 Baseball-Ref WAR, and a 96 wRC+ over those first six MLB seasons with the White Sox and A’s. He has a 30+ homer/8+ win season and a 40+ homer/7+ win season over his last three years. Just a great turnaround.
Something that can probably be attributed to Semien’s rise is his increase in hard-hit rate in 2019 and 2021 — his two best years of his career.
You see all of those numbers and that hard-hit rate increase and probably ask, “Captain Rougie, why don’t you want Marcus Semien?” Funny you should still ask and not take my word for it, but I guess I’ll explain.
There’s extreme concern with a possible decline for Semien due to the gap in his actual stats and his expected stats. Yes, expected stats aren’t real, but they can be used to project possible positive/negative regression in players.
When a hitter has a 45-homer season and a 39-point gap in wOBA (.368) and xwOBA (.329), you might start to second-guess things. For those that don’t know: wOBA is short for Weighted On-Base Average and xwOBA is short for Expected Weighted On-Base Average. I’ll include an explanation link from FanGraphs here.
Concerning, no? Plus, he’s 31 years old and we all have seen the decline that DJ LeMahieu had this season in pinstripes after being given a large contract. He went from a top-3 MVP candidate in back-to-back seasons to a 100 wRC+ hitter, which is also just what he was in Colorado.
LeGrounder isn’t an exception to the rule. He is the rule.
He’s also just not a viable option at shortstop defensively, even if he hits. The point of signing a shortstop is that they’re supposed to be better than Gleyber Torres there. Over the past three seasons, Semien has a -14 OAA (Outs Above Average) at shortstop compared to a +7 OAA at second base.
Trevor Story and personal favorite Carlos Correa have great OAA numbers are two of the best defensive shortstops in the sport. Even Corey Seager is good enough to be a good all-around shortstop (he’s more of an average defender, if anything).
The Yankees ranked near the bottom of the league in fewest OAA from the shortstop position in 2021. Why would they want to continue that?
I think the Yankees wouldn’t be making an all-around sizable upgrade at shortstop if they signed Semien. He just doesn’t appear to be a true shortstop, even if his offense holds into the future — and I especially wouldn’t give him a deal beyond two years, which is probably what he’s looking for (3-5 range).
My first option continues to be Carlos Correa, but I’d be fine with the leader in the clubhouse for the Yankees: Corey Seager. Even Trevor Story on a smaller deal would do it for me. Just not Marcus Semien. I don’t think he’s that guy, pal.