Looking at Josh Bell as a Yankees' Trade Target
We talked about Josh Bell to the Yankees when he was on the Pirates last winter before he was dealt to the Nationals. Could the Yankees revisit him again this winter?
The Yankees went into Spring Training in 2021 with the 2020 Home Run King manning first base in Luke Voit. However, Voit suffered yet another injury (he’s had a few in pinstripes) and the Yankees had to find ways to fill in holes with Jay Bruce as the Opening Day first baseman. Bruce would retire a few weeks into April.
Voit would return in mid-May after missing 34 games, but he struggled to a 54 wRC+ in 50 PA across 12 games… before going down with another injury. He’d return after sitting for another 23 games and post a 126 wRC+ in 71 PA across 17 games… before hitting the IL for the third time this season.
That prompted the Yankees to start looking for a replacement for Voit (while also putting out feelers on the trade market for him). The Yankees decided to give up two decent prospects for rental veteran first baseman in Anthony Rizzo.
Rizzo would have a 113 wRC+ in 200 PA across 49 games in pinstripes, while homering in the AL Wild Card Game loss and being a great locker room presence. The 2016 World Champion turned 32 in August and will be entering free agency, so it might be a stretch for him to return to the Yankees next season unless the Yankees can reach an affordable contract (two years, maybe?) with him
As Twitter User GarySanchezRBW2’s #sauces indicated, the A’s may be willing to unload Matt Olson this offseason (since they’re one of the cheapest teams in the entire sport). Olson, who had a 146 wRC+ this year, has two years of control remaining and will be getting a bump from his $5M in 2021. He’s going to cost a sizable amount of prospect capital, but maybe not as much as he should since the A’s clearly just want to free up some money and get whatever prospects they can in return.
However, there could be a cheaper option available that the Yankees are familiar with: Nationals’ first baseman Josh Bell. The Yankees had interest in a package deal last offseason involving both Jameson Taillon and Josh Bell — but the Pirates ultimately decided to send just Taillon to the Yankees and Bell to the Nationals.
Bell missed the first couple games of the season as a casualty to the Nationals’ COVID outbreak — which can probably be looked at as a reason for his rough start. Bell had just four homers and a 54 wRC+ in his first 29 games of 2021. He would end the season very strong, though, with 23 homers and a 134 wRC+ over his final 115 games.
Bell has one year left remaining of team control, so he shouldn’t have a high price tag. There’s a possibility that the Nationals could want to reach an extension and keep a decent bat in the lineup around superstar Juan Soto, though they did trade away Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Kyle Schwarber, among others, at the deadline this year.
Overall on the season, Bell had a .347 OBP, .476 SLG, 118 wRC+, and a pretty serviceable -1 Defensive Runs Saved at first base. Yankees’ first basemen on the year combined for a .333 OBP, .373 SLG, 97 wRC+, and -6 Defensive Runs Saved.
OAA actually likes Bell more than DRS, as he they had him at 4 OAA for 2021.
Bell has the ability to hit from both sides of the plate, so that would give the Yankees even more flexibility in their lineup.
On the year, he had a 125 wRC+ against lefties and a 115 wRC+ against righties. He was even better from that previous time span I mentioned on (May 20th through the end of the year), having a 144 wRC+ against lefties and 129 wRC+ against righties during that span.
In terms of Statcast numbers, there’s a way you can put Josh Bell and Aaron Judge in the same sentence. Bell has a 20.4% hard-hit balls per swing rate this season, the same total as Judge. Only five qualified hitters have a higher hard-hit balls per swing rate in the majors this season.
Bell had 92nd percentile average exit velocity (92.5 MPH), 96th percentile max exit velocity (115.8 MPH), and the third-largest drop in whiff rate (33.6% to 24.1%, which is a 9.5-point drop) in the majors this season (behind Gregory Polanco and Matt Olson).
Twitter User RyanGarciaESM made a good point that Bell was one of his favorite first base options for 2022 if the Yankees were wanting to move on from Luke Voit. Voit is a very good offensive player but he’s a horrendous defensive player and a health liability (he literally hurt himself running down to first base when he shouldn’t have the other day on a dropped third strike with a runner occupying first base).
I agree with Ryan. If Matt Olson is a hard get, Josh Bell should be the target.