Anthony Rizzo Isn't The Right Answer For The 2022 Yankees
The more I look at the batted ball data, the more I believe Anthony Rizzo isn't the right option for a contending 2022 Yankees' roster.
Like everyone else, I definitely loved having Anthony Rizzo on the Yankees for the last two months of the season. He was a great clubhouse leader and I felt way more comfortable having a lefty hitter and solid defender at first base.
However, the 32-year-old first baseman is now a free-agent. He turned down a five-year, $70M extension with the Cubs before the 2021 season that would’ve paid him $14M annually. Spotrac values him at four years, $86M… or $21.7M per season.
Here are how similar players cashed out on contracts…
I could definitely see something offered like Jose Abreu’s deal. I just don’t think the Yankees should go north of three years when there other places that need significant upgrades that involve lots of money.
Rizzo was pretty much a league-average first baseman this season, hitting 22 homers with a .344 OBP, .440 SLG, and 112 wRC+ in 141 games with the Cubs and Yankees. That’s about on par for what the regular MLB first baseman would provide (if you prorate their numbers to 580 PA).
Steamer is usually good in providing solid projections for hitters, as referenced here, and they have Rizzo as a top-7 offensive first baseman in the majors. I’d definitely take that from a first baseman with a solid lefty bat and good defense.
31 homers, 125 wRC+ from a first baseman? I could rock with that.
The issue with Rizzo is his batted ball data that shows an eventual decline for him. He had a lowly 19.4% line-drive rate (lower than the 20.7% line-drive average rate) and a 39.7% fly-ball rate (higher than the 39.7% fly-ball average rate) in 2021. He also had a 40.8% hard-hit rate (league-average was 38.5% in 2021).
Look, I’m pretty content with a hitter that hits the ball in the air higher than the league-average rate and hits the ball hard — but that’s not the underlying issue here. It’s honestly about what he does with those fly balls and how the results on such batted balls have declined over the last few years.
All of his AVG/SLG/OPS numbers on fly balls and pop-ups have declined over the last two seasons compared to his previous three seasons. That’s bound to be a thing with him aging — as we’ve seen with other players.
Rizzo is a hitter that meets the criteria in certain batted ball data profiles, it’s just not mounting to results. There are other options available that can do better things with those fly balls.
Josh Bell (one year left of control with the Nationals) does damage when he hits the ball in the air, but he has a high ground-ball rate (53.5%) and not-so-great average launch angle (4.9 degrees). That makes him less enticing to be honest as I originally thought. The Yankees don’t need more hitters that hit a bunch of hard ground balls.
Matt Olson (two years left of control with the A’s) is an obvious favorite of mine and others. He has a low line-drive rate (16.5%), but he doesn’t hit the ball on the ground (39.8%) and hits the ball with authority in the air — as shown with his stats on fly balls and pop-ups in 2021.
Olson had 39 homers and a 146 wRC+ in 156 games in 2021.
Then, there’s Brandon Belt (free-agent). He’s a left-handed bat that has tons of success with balls in the air (1.546 OPS on fly balls and pop-ups), hits a lot of fly balls (50.0%) and has done that for the last six years (fly-ball rate over 46% each year), and doesn’t hit the ball on the ground at all (27.3%) with a good average launch angle (23 degrees).
Bell only played in 97 games in 2021, but he had 29 homers and a 158 wRC+.
Worth mentioning with Belt: He had +2 OAA at first base in 2021, so he’s not bad over there.
If you were to ask me to rank those four first base options, I’d do it like this…
Matt Olson
Brandon Belt
Anthony Rizzo
Josh Bell
Olson, as I’ve mentioned before, is a guy the Yankees absolutely need to target. If the package required to get him is too much (prospects are prospects and the Yankees need to go for it, so I don’t mind giving them up), eyes should turn to Belt next.
Rizzo is a great guy, truly, and still is productive, but first base offense is a necessity if you want to compete, and if you’re declining on balls in the air, I start to worry… and that’s what Rizzo has shown.
Now, let me also make this clear: If you can get Rizzo to come back on an affordable contract (2-3 years of $14M-$15M AAV), I’m all ears if Matt Olson can’t be had.
Rizzo is an easy guy to root for. He was a hit with Yankees’ fans, the front office, and the clubhouse. I’m all for bringing guys back that enjoy New York and prosper, but there comes a point where it’s a business and you need to go with the better options.
It makes more sense to me to not give a likely declining Rizzo a contract, unless it absolutely works out in the Yankees’ favor.